Archive for the ‘References’ Category

2018 Resolution

January 1, 2018

Haven’t done one of these for a while because I am usually somewhere traveling around this time of the year, but this year, I am still here dealing with a stupid passport problem that appeared from a 9/11 anti terrorist law passed and enforced in 2014. Setting a new year resolution also makes me lazy. Instead of tackling whatever it is I want to do right NOW, I’d often put it off till after new years and it eventually never get done. That said, I have a list of project that’s ongoing as of this date so I will just list them. These goals are not meant to be achievable as I have mostly completed all the goals I previously set.

Get stronger: Hulk Smash

Travel to all the countries

Flagpole in every country

Fix this blog:

Just went and read through my spam filter. Many readers pointed out many things wrong with my site. Ever since the ISP change, many things got broken and I haven’t touched the programming side of things for 2 years.

Reach 30

Achieve Master Diver status

Learn Guitar

Learn Leather working

Learn German

New Bucket list

Great wall of China
Porcelain Tower of Nanjin
Hua Shan
Taishan
Huangshan
Monk life at Shaolin Temple
Kumano Kodo
Heaven’s gate
Han Soong Dong cave

Great Pyramid of Gyza

Machu Pichu
Camino del Inca
Torres de Plaine
Chichen Itza
Petra

Aurora Borealis
Great Barrier Reef
Antartica
Tibet
Everest
Mongolia

SS Thistlegorm

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2017 year of becoming

December 31, 2017

Status

Growing into my place in society is a slow and long process. I planned it this way as I’ve heard so many story of people crashing after instant fame. It is scheduled to be a 3 year process and year one is basically simulating life starting from zero to minimum wage. Yes, I’ve been here a long time ago but because of pouring close to 75% of take home pay on improving my place in life and increasing experiences the amount of actual spending money/cash flow verges on below poverty.

For this year, I lived like every minimum wage slave and spent everything I got. It was already pretty good and comfortable and I realized how much my life sucked back then. I can also better understand how some people could live the life they lived while making less than me. Anyway, this lifestyle is done.

Next year, I transition to the lifestyle of a professional. I honestly cannot imagine how much more hedonistic my life will become. Before, I never understood why people say cash is king or cash flow is important, but now I understand that it determines your life style. Everything cost money, the only people who gets to experience “The life” without having to work are hot girls spending someone else’s dime. It’s funny how I thought being able to talk and beg my way into getting free shit is actually a good character trait. Little did I know that these are traits that are looked upon favorably for women, but for men, people lose respect for you.

Death of Valor

Took me a while to figure out. That last part. I believed in the American dream. Starting from scratch, never take anyone’s money and always repay kindness. I believed that being able to make it on my own will teach me important lessons in life. On top of that, I didn’t borrow anything. The most I was in debt was when I bought my first condo and took on that mortgage.

And it did teach me many lessons. I had to take a hard and pragmatic look at the true state of what I was born with and what I am good at as well as dispelling the media lies about society’s rainbow and unicorn view of human nature. I had always known about human nature and the outcome based on it, I just refused to believe it was true because it makes the world so dark and cold.

Here’s where that dark view on the world shines. One of the thing I am good at, is figuring out how a new system works. Once I was able to admit I was wrong look at human nature as a new system, I devised controlled tests that allow me to figure out the truth. Before I did this, I spent two years believing in the inherent goodness of people. That’s the reason for the soul searching/meditation/yoga period. What I learned during that time is that I suck at telling lie from truth and was deceived by quite a few shady fellow.

I “believed” in people’s good intentions and took things at their face value. That style never suited me anyway. I was always better at being skeptical and working from the belief that all people are selfish and what I think is evil and immoral are actually not when people look at the situation from the belief that they are the center of the universe. The closest approximation I can find in popular culture is Mark Baum from the movie “The Big Short”. I find that I have taken on some of his habit of asking to clarify and explain while agreeing with people who says I have no idea what I am talking about. It comes from the transition in mindset where my ego and reputation in that moment with someone I do not care about no longer matters and what matters is whether or not my theory can be disproven and I come out ahead on the outcome. Everyone else is just a guinea pig to bounce the idea off of.

Coffee

It’s a major decision. I’ve been on the fence for too long as being pumped full of caffeine gave me a false sense of ability to get things done. This year, I went through numerous cycles of complete abstinence and complete immersion with coffee and have finally figured out its effect on my body. I suspect, that as I age more and my body become more reliant on caffeine, the negative effects are more pronounced. Being able to objectively list out the effects can also be partly associated with meditations which allow me to be more sensitive to changes to my internal state.

What I believe happens, when I consume 1 cup of caffeine, that is not enough to provide my body with what it needs, is that it puts me in the withdrawal state. Which means runny nose and a general sense of vertigo with headache. It also comes with a decreased sense of upbeat outlook on life. I am also less enthusiastic about completing tasks. Electing instead to repeat mundane useless things.

I had thought that caffeine helps me get things done before as well as keeping me awake. But whatever benefit I gain from longer period of wakefulness is lost with the general sense of wanting to get complex matters done. My ego is more fragile, so I tend to avoid things that have negativity with it. Once I consume enough caffeine, of course the negative traits of withdrawal goes away, but then I get stupid and prefer doing stuff that are repetitive.

Evolution of thought

Three major change in the way I think as the ramp up in cash flow increases through out the year.

First is how my purchasing habits evolved. I’d buy all the different choices to do the same thing and make a decision on which one I like best. Then I’d buy enough of the one I picked to last for the rest of my life since most vendors nowadays disappear after a few years. I also don’t bother with returns anymore since that takes too much effort and time.

Two is the fact that I no longer need to make sacrifices… Usually I can have the cake and eat it too. Insane when you think this is how the majority of people live their lives too.

Three is that I don’t criticize people in position of powers anymore. Nor do I have such an inflated ego that I believe I am in any place close enough to criticize them or make comments and suggestions. Take Trump for example. He’s a very easy target and I understand what most people think of him, but I will leave the criticizing to people who’ve been presidents before because I understand now that I do not have all the facts that someone in that position of power is looking at nor do I understand what it took to get there.

Every field gets bigger and harder as you climb up and I’ve lately been involved with more and more intense projects that I understand what it took, no matter how stupid and one sided an argument is. Comments like “You don’t know what you are talking about” or “Are you stupid?” are common and usually an indication that I am onto something. In fact, all my greatest ideas have encountered statements like this. It is similar to what silicon valley venture capitalist believes. That if a lot of people hates an idea, then they are usually on to something. Funnily, I can’t find any psychological research on this topic. Maybe one of you university psychology students who read this blog can get something started on this.

Health

20170810_141616 From bulking to flailing about on everything to the surgical strikes designed for a pro to the final keto diet cut today. The whole journey took 5 years. I didn’t know what I was getting myself into, but I had a general idea that I want to be fit and the general consensus is that Brad Pitt’s body in fight club is fit. It just so happens that he is the same height as me so I looked him up. 155lb at around 10% body fat. There was a lot of theory reading, a lot of trying things out and understanding what each modification does to my body. My dad actually said that I am the first member of our family history to achieve a 6-pack.

This is one of the intense projects I took on which contributed to the evolution I mentioned in the previous section. Initially, I was skeptical about everyone claiming they can achieve strength that are twice what I was capable of. From that, I thought one of two true is the reality: everyone else is bullshitting or I am just very out of shape and am deluding myself. What do you know, it was a hard pill to swallow, but I was deluding myself.

Five years later, at my peak and before the shoulder injury. I reached 2x the average male adult’s strength based on weight and repetitions. Now after the injury, I am maintaining a 1.5x ratio. If I remember the progress correctly, it was about 2 years of stumbling about with cardio and light weight. Then 3 years of pure strength training starting from 3 times a week at 1 hour each and ending with 6 times a week at 2 hours each. The dedication needed was incredible and meeting other like minded individual whom you nod your head to everyday is also incredible.

To get there, I had to learn all about nutrition, correct forms and research everything about a cycles of working out. Now I am learning the painful lessons of recovery. Specifically injury recovery. Like every idiot, I thought my body is invincible and never planned for recovery. I wanted to reach the top too fast, just like everything else I do. This is when I began to consult with professionals in sport therapy and discovered all these new information about our body and my own experience correlates with their theory. Shoulder injuries takes about 3 months to heal. My body is not genetically made for strength but for flexibility and the bone structure is not made for pushing weights up from my shoulder. Which explains why I can never do a hand stand. Which sort of sucks since I live in North America where body strength is highly valued.

So my left shoulder has one small hairline fracture at the clavicle and a couple of knots (about 10 different places) and one torn tendon. I couldn’t lift it up higher than shoulder height and touching the skin on my shoulder makes the whole thing hurt. These all started from the hairline fracture which made the rest of my shoulder adjust to tackle the weight. The good that came out of this is I finally balanced my left side strength with my right side, the bad is that I had to stop for 3 months and set back my improvement by about 8 months.

As you can see, I went into it thinking I just need to lift. Came out knowing that there is a lot more I need to do. Lifestyle change, plans, food time and money. The biggest lesson I learned though is that the details to reaching the top is a lot grittier and to think I know what it take is to be conceited. Most people don’t want to hear about the struggle and just want to hear and see the result usually. Which contributed somewhat to the lack of information.

Progress Earliest Record I think it was 2011 tmp_15667-abs-1082911424 Dec 2014 tmp_15667-abs201455839292 Feb 2017 tmp_15667-20170213_1927152515438 March 2018 tmp_15667-20170331_142704-88860620 May 2018 20170512_171013 At my prime in August 2018 20170828_121045 Back 20170828_121108 20170828_121154Untitled                        

The TSLA saga Feb 28

February 28, 2016

It’s when I start writing down things that I realized how much of the analysis I do have been internalized. What took a fraction of a second for me to realize actually takes a long time to type out in plain English and present with graphs.

Today is about the most recent TA. Since that is probably the most pressing matter on your mind. Short term, what’s coming this week type of things. I have some long term debt analysis and the current profit analysis from my conservative straddle to come in next weeks’ time frame. Excuse me for the lack of anything as I focus 3 days per week on Canadian Real Estate as I am making quite a few large moves.Feb28tsla

The red channel

TSLA is currently in a general downtrend channel that began in July 20 2015. If you draw the top channel using the high of the day for 7/20, 9/25 and 12/30, you will get the channel. The lower channel is established with the use of the low of the day on 8/24. As you can see, the reversal happened around the price point of the lower channel. The id channel is established by taking out the extreme price swing of 8/24 and use the lowers candle of the rest of the trend. So you can say that the lower bound represent potential extreme move. The mid channel is the bearish case and the top channel is potential resistance.

Coming week

Barring any macro shock, I believe the coming week will see a mean reversion as we move away from oversold conditions. $198.7 is one of the fib retracement levels that will present slight resistance while the $206.44 gap made in 2013 Q4 will present a higher than normal resistance. My personal guess is that the stock price will reach the $206.44 resistance when the 100 day moving average (thick yellow line in the graph) actually meets $206.44 level (Thick purple horizontal line).

Keeping this in mind, if you look at short term volatility, at 0.504, you’ll realize that this is smaller than the usual volatility while the actual risk for a upward rebound is greater than normal. This, in my opinion is due to computer algorithms not accounting for the March 31 Model 3 reveal volatility because it can’t read like human. The other reason is the fact that volatility to the downside seems to affect the premium calculation more than volatility to the upside. I remember something like that when I spent time to actually derive the Black-Scholes algorithm, can’t remember the details though.

So with the two in mind, $200 is again a very attractive price point to initiate a straddle strategy. However this time, I would go for a shorter term straddle instead of the longer term conservative straddle like last time. If you look at the volatility graph in the TA pic, you understand that long term volatility have now crossed above short term volatility.

Macro

You can discount any Macro news from China now. While researching Real Estate movements in Vancouver, I confirmed that the Chinese is selling things in China in order to move money out to other places. The first place where this is manifesting is in Real Estate prices of several targeted cities. The Chinese have an inherent distrust of the stock market, so the trickle down will not move to the actual stock market until the people who sold their houses to Chinese investors begin moving their money into the stock market. Seeing how slow Real Estate transactions are, I’d guesstimate next year. The detail of this research will be presented once I have finalized all my real estate moves.

So if China is not going to affect us, I believe the most important Macro events are Feds, Syria and Europe. Oil is moving to the bankruptcy and consolidation phase now. Hopefully within 1 year or two, the bankruptcy will subside and we will finally see a rebound. So I doubt oil is going to affect us much more. The Syrian conflict is interesting in that if it were to happen, oil price should shoot up and it will happen without USA’s involvement. The current feeling I get from most people in the western world is that they don’t want to get in between the conflict of two arab nations and Saudi Arabia cannot beat Russia.

The TSLA Saga Oct 08

January 17, 2016
In the interest of full disclosure. Here’s an email conversation I had with a selected few people. I am only posting my replies since I do not have anyone’s permission to publish anything. I am apologize for going bearish on you guys without letting you know.

Thu, Oct 8, 2015 at 10:17 AM

The X reveal confirms that the employee factory ramp leak a few months ago was true.
Going forward, plan your plays without any significant X contribution and assume that the info in the leak is true.
Adam Jonas flip flops yes and I do not like the weird reasoning behind. But if you look closely, he flip flops because of the bottom line data he probably got from Elon. But has to invent a reason for down/upgrades.Regards

Sat, Oct 10, 2015 at 10:58 AM

It depends on R&D spending. Seeing that it’s october and that bonnie still doesn’t have her Model X, it’s safe to assume that R&D spend will stay elevated in Q4 as they need to keep the elevated RD spending to streamline the production line. This RD spending is probably capital expenditure on machines. Retooling, changing the machine since one doesn’t work out, accelerate the production line build up for the windshield manufacturer etc. The investing public will know this in around Feb 2016.

Disclaimer

This is a generic disclaimer I attach to all financial based posts to catch all disclaimers. I own everything I talk about. If you suspect I own something or have an Agenda just assume yes. Assume the worst. Assume I am not acting on your best interest.

2015 Financial collapse log

February 10, 2015

2015 is about oil.

January

Have not been logging since 2012 as the market has been stable. Oil was steadily rising above $100 and economics are picking up speed. US unemployment at 5.7% and the Fed is getting ready to raise interest rate in September. Banks are still mired in Lawsuit from 2008, but saw the biggest part of legal liabilities settled in 2014.

-December of last year (2014) OPEC, especially Saudi, decided to not reduce output. oil price fell. The reasoning is that the last time they reduced output in 1980, they see other suppliers picking up the slack. This time they want market share.

-Oil was already falling, but the November to January drop see oil going from $100 to $45 per barrel. The Saudi king died this month.

-CDN went from 1:1 USD to 1:0.79 USD.

-Net 10 000 job lost in Canada for December, predicting 50 000 jobs lost for January.

-Real estate in oil related Calgary down 5%, but China RE related Vancouver and Toronto up 20% due to currency

-COS.TO Suspends dividend by 40% in November, then 85% in Jan. Stock drops from $22 to $6.70 at lowest point due to a leak. All trade cancelled during the leak. So the technical lowest was $7.11. Purchased shares at $7.5

-Major energy companies like SU did not suffer too much. At most 15% drop.

-EU decided to unleash QE of 1.1 Trillion Euros

-Bank of Canada dropped rate in an emergency meeting from 1% to 0.78%.

-BNS.TO got caught red handed in energy trade.

-FXCM had to receive a 300M cash injection from others due to client funds that are too levered who cannot repay the margin. IB got caught too, but did not need bailout as it only suffered 100Million.

-Car manufacturers saw lots of buying. Especially GM as their trucks are sold out. Credit card processors like Visa saw an uptick in consumer spending

-Canadians debt to GDP at 160%. Most people have DCA downed their oil and bank holdings. Majority holds oil and bank stocks.

Protected: idea

March 21, 2011

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