The TSLA Saga Jan 13

Canada and Oil

The word on the brick and mortar street is, that 80% of workers in Alberta got laid off. 99% in Fort Mac, where oil bases are leaves them with a skeleton crew to ensure nothing leaks or blow up. This will speed up my timeline to move away either to USA or Europe by about 4 month. I do not want to stay here for the pain that is to come. I will write about what I am seeing in my undercover role in the underbellies of the society some other day. Today let’s talk about TSLA and the next few important day to come.

I’ve been hearing about Bank of Canada moving interest rate down again and possibly move to 0% interest rate.

TSLA

TSLA compared to indincesFrom the point of view of the year. TSLA has been “normalized” back down and all its premium against indices erased. A 10% devaluation in most indices is just a mini crash. And it just so happens that we are about to meet the price level of last September’s mini crash at the historical day of the Opex of LEAPS. The conspiracy theorist in me is tingling.

So I checked some old algorithms I had. It kind of feels peaceful analyzing TSLA now that I write here and don’t have to please people by refraining my negative thoughts.

So this is happening again. (note blue line is opex profit, purle is current profit)

Big Short

Looks to be at the beginning of the phase as most people can still borrow the shares to perform this move. Last time I detected this going on, there were no shares to borrow and it cost around 40% ~60% interest to borrow. Those of you reading this probably remembers what happened after. Since I already took my chance back then, I am taking a more conservative approach this time. A straddle is the safest bet as a convergence of several technical levels comes into play. Either way the stock will not be staying at $200.

My current strategy

The straddles will be my choice, but it has very expensive short term premium right now. So My bet would be to use Stock as the call and buy a similar amount of put options at $200 to offset it while selling a $250 call options to help cover the cost. The best bet is to sell the $250 call options monthly.

The TA Chart

RSIBelieve it or not. I usually never touch (just let my algorithms continue to do its own calculation) the chart I show the most often. A lot of people call it rainbows and unicorn because of how colorful it is. I think I should start explaining why each one of the drawing is on my chart.

Today several things on TA is happening. $200 which is a whole number, we reached the bottom of the previous Sept trough so the graph is almost forming a W (or double dip). Opex in 3 days, and RSI is reaching the bottom. It’s that gray graph you see below the main colorful graph. When it dips below 30, it shows blue.

Now there’s a dirty little secret algorithm I used to use as a strong indicator of reversal buy. Whenever two consecutive RSI dip below 30 happens. I always buy the stock as soon as it return for the second dip to above 30.

So all these, means sometimes within the next 5 days, we are see a really significant move. Historically, there’s more than a 50% chance of it rebounding. But history is not an indication of future performance and you still have that other 49% chance of going down to deal with.

Disclaimer

This is a generic disclaimer I attach to all financial based posts to catch all disclaimers. I own everything I talk about. If you suspect I own something or have an Agenda just assume yes. Assume the worst. Assume I am not acting on your best interest.

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