2015 Financial collapse log

2015 is about oil.

January

Have not been logging since 2012 as the market has been stable. Oil was steadily rising above $100 and economics are picking up speed. US unemployment at 5.7% and the Fed is getting ready to raise interest rate in September. Banks are still mired in Lawsuit from 2008, but saw the biggest part of legal liabilities settled in 2014.

-December of last year (2014) OPEC, especially Saudi, decided to not reduce output. oil price fell. The reasoning is that the last time they reduced output in 1980, they see other suppliers picking up the slack. This time they want market share.

-Oil was already falling, but the November to January drop see oil going from $100 to $45 per barrel. The Saudi king died this month.

-CDN went from 1:1 USD to 1:0.79 USD.

-Net 10 000 job lost in Canada for December, predicting 50 000 jobs lost for January.

-Real estate in oil related Calgary down 5%, but China RE related Vancouver and Toronto up 20% due to currency

-COS.TO Suspends dividend by 40% in November, then 85% in Jan. Stock drops from $22 to $6.70 at lowest point due to a leak. All trade cancelled during the leak. So the technical lowest was $7.11. Purchased shares at $7.5

-Major energy companies like SU did not suffer too much. At most 15% drop.

-EU decided to unleash QE of 1.1 Trillion Euros

-Bank of Canada dropped rate in an emergency meeting from 1% to 0.78%.

-BNS.TO got caught red handed in energy trade.

-FXCM had to receive a 300M cash injection from others due to client funds that are too levered who cannot repay the margin. IB got caught too, but did not need bailout as it only suffered 100Million.

-Car manufacturers saw lots of buying. Especially GM as their trucks are sold out. Credit card processors like Visa saw an uptick in consumer spending

-Canadians debt to GDP at 160%. Most people have DCA downed their oil and bank holdings. Majority holds oil and bank stocks.

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